As communities brace for rising wintertime influenza cases, scientists are developing a mathematical and visual analytic toolkit to help health officials quickly analyze pandemics and craft better response strategies.

Scientists at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have created a Pandemic Influenza Planning Tool to model the spread of a disease through various age groups and geographic populations.

"No single approach provides an optimal strategy when battling the spread of a pandemic," said Robert Brigantic, PNNL operations research scientist, "But, the use of this tool can allow health officials to more accurately predict how a disease might evolve when various mitigation strategies are applied."

These results could be valuable in developing an aggressive preventive strategy and deciding how best to use limited resources.

Brigantic's tool allows officials to easily evaluate potential response options by manipulating modeling parameters and running different simulations. For instance, officials could assess closing schools to decrease disease spread, initiate preventative media campaigns, or evaluate distributing antiviral medications to easily evaluate potential mitigation approaches.

In late September, PNNL demonstrated an early prototype of the tool during a Walla Walla County, Wash., Pandemic Influenza emergency exercise. Officials simulated an H1N1 Swine Flu outbreak and used the tool to predict resource needs and shortfalls, such as the loss of critical staff and lack of hospital beds.

"The Pandemic Influenza Planning Tool allows health officials to carefully assess and more accurately predict how disease might evolve when various mitigation strategies are applied. (Credit: Image courtesy of DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)"

Source: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory